Win Probability
Game Excitement Index: 3.67 | Odds: NCSU -16.5, O/U 48.0 | Download Chart
Expected Points
Team Stats [show/hide]
| Overall |
|
|
|---|---|---|
| EPA/Play | 0.09 62nd %ile | -0.01 46th %ile |
| Success Rate | 54% 95th %ile | 42% 52nd %ile |
| Yards/Play | 5.08 30th %ile | 5.15 32nd %ile |
| EPA/Dropback | 0.06 55th %ile | -0.28 20th %ile |
| EPA/Rush | 0.10 65th %ile | 0.31 90th %ile |
| Yards/Dropback | 5.74 43rd %ile | 3.90 14th %ile |
| Explosive Play Rate | 1% 0th %ile | 8% 47th %ile |
| 3rd Down Success Rate | 47% 67th %ile | 31% 23rd %ile |
| Red Zone Success Rate | 43% 57th %ile | 100% 99th %ile |
| Def Run Stuff Rate | 12% 0th %ile | 13% 1st %ile |
| Havoc Rate | 10% 49th %ile | 9% 46th %ile |
| Expected Points | |
|
|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 80 | 63 |
| Total EPA | 8.65 | -2.55 |
| Offensive EPA | 6.12 | -0.7 |
| Special Teams EPA | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| Penalty EPA | 2.26 | 4.3 |
| Non-Scrimmage/Misc EPA | 0.01 | -6.45 |
| Production | |
|
|---|---|---|
| Scrimmage Plays | 72 | 53 |
| Yards | 366 | 273 |
| Yards/Play | 5.08 | 5.15 |
| EPA | 6.12 | -0.70 |
| EPA/Play | 0.09 | -0.01 |
| Passes | 27 (38%) | 29 (55%) |
| Yards | 155 | 113 |
| Yards/Play | 5.74 | 3.90 |
| EPA | 1.62 | -8.20 |
| EPA/Play | 0.06 | -0.28 |
| Rushes | 45 (63%) | 24 (45%) |
| Yards | 215 | 170 |
| Yards/Play | 4.89 | 7.08 |
| EPA | 4.51 | 7.51 |
| EPA/Play | 0.10 | 0.31 |
| Rushing | |
|
|---|---|---|
| Scrimmage Plays | 72 | 53 |
| Rushes | 45 (63%) | 24 (45%) |
| Power Run Attempts (Down ≥ 3, Distance ≤ 2) | 2 (4%) | 1 (4%) |
| Successful Power Runs (Rate) | 1 (50%) | 1 (100%) |
| Stuffed Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 0) | 6 (13%) | 3 (12%) |
| Stopped Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 2) | 16 (36%) | 11 (46%) |
| Opportunity Runs (Yds Gained ≥ 4) | 25 (56%) | 10 (42%) |
| OL Line Yards | 83.2 | 44.7 |
| Per Carry | 1.85 | 1.86 |
| Highlight Yards | 50 | 87 |
| Per Rush Opportunity | 2.00 | 8.70 |
| Explosiveness | |
|
|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 80 | 63 |
| Scrimmage Plays | 72 | 53 |
| Explosive Plays | 1 (1%) | 4 (8%) |
| When Passing (EPA > 2.4) | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
| When Rushing (EPA > 1.8) | 1 (2%) | 4 (17%) |
| EPA w/o Explosive Plays | 3.09 | -13.79 |
| EPA/Play | 0.04 | -0.28 |
| When Passing | 1.62 | -8.20 |
| EPA/Play | 0.06 | -0.28 |
| When Rushing | 1.47 | -5.59 |
| EPA/Play | 0.03 | -0.28 |
| Situational | |
|
|---|---|---|
| Successful Plays (EPA > 0) | 39 (54%) | 22 (42%) |
| When Passing | 14 (52%) | 10 (34%) |
| When Rushing | 25 (56%) | 12 (50%) |
| On Standard Downs | 32 (54%) | 16 (44%) |
| On Passing Downs | 7 (54%) | 6 (35%) |
| On Early Downs | 31 (55%) | 16 (41%) |
| On Late Downs | 8 (50%) | 6 (43%) |
| During "Middle 8" | 7 (44%) | 2 (25%) |
| Early Downs | 56 | 39 |
| First Downs Created | 14 (25%) | 7 (18%) |
| EPA | 5.17 | -2.07 |
| EPA/Play | 0.09 | -0.05 |
| Passes | 22 (39%) | 19 (49%) |
| Rushes | 34 (61%) | 20 (51%) |
| Successful Passes (Rate) | 12 (55%) | 6 (32%) |
| Successful Rushes (Rate) | 19 (56%) | 10 (50%) |
| "Middle 8" Plays | 16 | 8 |
| EPA | 0.84 | -1.87 |
| EPA/play | 0.05 | -0.23 |
| Passes | 10 (63%) | 4 (50%) |
| Rushes | 6 (38%) | 4 (50%) |
| Successful Passes (Rate) | 4 (40%) | 1 (25%) |
| Successful Rushes (Rate) | 3 (50%) | 1 (25%) |
| Drives | |
|
|---|---|---|
| Total | 10 | 9 |
| Avg Starting Field Position | Own 23 | Own 27 |
| Plays/Drive | 8.68 | 7.64 |
| Yards/Drive | 46.96 | 33.57 |
| Available Yards % | 61% | 46% |
| Defensive | |
|
|---|---|---|
| Scrimmage Plays | 53 | 72 |
| Stop Rate | 58% | 35% |
| Havoc Plays Created | 5 (9%) | 7 (10%) |
| Passing | 3 (10%) | 2 (7%) |
| Rushing | 2 (8%) | 5 (11%) |
| TFLs Generated | 4 | 7 |
| Passing | 2 | 2 |
| Rushing | 2 | 5 |
| Sacks Generated | 2 (7%) | 1 (4%) |
| Passes Defensed | 0 | 0 |
| Interceptions | 1 | 0 |
| Fumbles Forced | 0 | 0 |
| Turnovers | |
|
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 1 | 1 |
| Fumbles | 1 | 0 |
| Fumbles Lost | 1 | 0 |
| Fumbles Recovered | 0 | 0 |
| Interceptions | 0 | 1 |
| Turnover Margin | 0 | 0 |
| Expected Turnovers | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| Expected Turnover Margin | -0.3 | 0.3 |
| Turnover Luck (pts) | 1.4 | -1.4 |
| Special Teams | |
|
|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 8 | 10 |
| Total EPA | 0.26 | 0.3 |
| Field Goal EPA | -2.99 | 0 |
| Punting EPA | 0.02 | -0.17 |
| Kickoff Return EPA | 3.23 | 0.47 |
NC State [show/hide]
| Stat line | Yards/play | EPA/play | EPA | SR | WPA | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dropbacks | |||||||
| Brennan Armstrong | 17/26, 155 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, 1 Sck, 80.3 xQBR, 0.00 DETMER | 5.74 | 0.06 | 1.62 | 52% | 2.0% | |
| Rush attempts | |||||||
| Brennan Armstrong | 18 carries, 100 yds, 2 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 5.56 | 0.44 | 7.85 | 72% | 19.0% | |
| Michael Allen | 4 carries, 30 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 7.50 | 0.36 | 1.45 | 50% | 2.0% | |
| Keyon Lesane | 1 carry, 8 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 8.00 | 0.64 | 0.64 | 100% | 0.0% | |
| Jordan Houston | 13 carries, 57 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 4.38 | -0.07 | -0.87 | 38% | 0.0% | |
| Delbert Mimms III | 8 carries, 20 yds, 1 TD, 1 Fum (1 lost) | 2.50 | -0.63 | -5.00 | 38% | 3.0% | |
| Pass targets | |||||||
| Porter Rooks | 2 catches (2 targets), 18 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 9.00 | 1.57 | 3.14 | 100% | 5.0% | |
| Kevin Concepcion | 4 catches (4 targets), 36 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 9.00 | 0.65 | 2.60 | 100% | 3.0% | |
| Keyon Lesane | 2 catches (2 targets), 22 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 11.00 | 0.97 | 1.94 | 100% | 3.0% | |
| Bradley Rozner | 1 catch (1 target), 14 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 14.00 | 1.67 | 1.67 | 100% | 0.0% | |
| Terrell Timmons Jr. | 1 catch (1 target), 18 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 18.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 100% | 2.0% | |
| Julian Gray | 2 catches (2 targets), 14 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 7.00 | 0.35 | 0.70 | 100% | 1.0% | |
| Michael Allen | 3 catches (3 targets), 27 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 9.00 | 0.20 | 0.59 | 33% | 0.0% | |
| Trent Pennix | 1 catch (1 target), 7 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 7.00 | 0.52 | 0.52 | 100% | 0.0% | |
| Jordan Houston | 1 catch (1 target), -1 yd, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | -1.00 | -0.99 | -0.99 | 0% | -1.0% | |
UConn [show/hide]
| Stat line | Yards/play | EPA/play | EPA | SR | WPA | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dropbacks | |||||||
| Alexander Honig | 0/1, 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, 0 Scks, 12.0 xQBR, 0.00 DETMER | 0.00 | -0.70 | -0.70 | 0% | -1.0% | |
| Joseph Fagnano | 14/26, 113 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT, 2 Scks, 28.5 xQBR, 0.14 DETMER | 4.04 | -0.27 | -7.50 | 36% | -11.0% | |
| Rush attempts | |||||||
| Victor Rosa | 9 carries, 99 yds, 2 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 11.00 | 0.69 | 6.17 | 44% | 17.0% | |
| Joseph Fagnano | 5 carries, 28 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 5.60 | 0.45 | 2.25 | 60% | -3.0% | |
| Brian Brewton | 3 carries, 19 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 6.33 | 0.43 | 1.30 | 100% | 2.0% | |
| Devontae Houston | 7 carries, 24 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 3.43 | -0.32 | -2.21 | 29% | -1.0% | |
| Pass targets | |||||||
| Devontae Houston | 3 catches (3 targets), 22 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 7.33 | 0.90 | 2.70 | 67% | 3.0% | |
| Cameron Ross | 1 catch (1 target), 14 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 14.00 | 2.34 | 2.34 | 100% | 2.0% | |
| Justin Joly | 4 catches (4 targets), 38 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 9.50 | 0.58 | 2.32 | 75% | 1.0% | |
| Brett Buckman | 2 catches (2 targets), 19 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 9.50 | 1.08 | 2.15 | 100% | 2.0% | |
| Geordon Porter | 2 catches (2 targets), 12 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 6.00 | 0.31 | 0.63 | 100% | 0.0% | |
| Victor Rosa | 2 catches (2 targets), 8 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 4.00 | -0.23 | -0.47 | 0% | 0.0% | |
Big Plays [show/hide]
As determined by absolute EPA.
| Time | Offense | Play Description | EPA | WP% | WPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2:04 | |
(1st & 10 at CONN 29) Victor Rosa run for 71 yds for a TD UConn Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Victor Rosa) to the NCSU 0 (Joe McFadden KICK) - NCSU 17, CONN 14 | 6.48 | 8.6% | 17.0% |
|
Play Type: Rushing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 99 Started Drive at: NCSU 29 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 0.55 = 6.48 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.48) Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 17, CONN 14 Drive Summary: 1 play, 71 yards Win Probability (Before): 8.6% Win Probability (After): 25.6% Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 7 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
|||||
| Q2 4:34 | |
(4th & 4 at CONN 33) Brayden Narveson 50 yd FG MISSED - NCSU 7, CONN 7 | -3.65 | 82.5% | -5.2% |
|
Play Type: Field Goal Missed Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 68 Started Drive at: NCSU 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.85 - 1.80 = -3.65 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.80) Score Difference (End): 0 (1.85) Change of Possession: 1 Score: NCSU 7, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 10 plays, 53 yards Win Probability (Before): 82.5% Win Probability (After): 77.2% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
|||||
| Q4 11:28 | |
(4th & 1 at CONN 46) Delbert Mimms III run for no gain to the CONN 46 - NCSU 24, CONN 14 | -3.61 | 94.2% | -2.5% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 54 Started Drive at: NCSU 32 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.88 - 1.73 = -3.61 Score Difference (Before): 10 (11.73) Score Difference (End): -10 (-8.12) Change of Possession: 1 Score: NCSU 24, CONN 14 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 22 yards Win Probability (Before): 94.2% Win Probability (After): 91.8% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
|||||
| Q3 0:34 | |
(3rd & Goal at CONN 8) Brennan Armstrong run for 8 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK) - NCSU 24, CONN 14 | 3.04 | 85.2% | 8.6% |
|
Play Type: Rushing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 99 Started Drive at: CONN 27 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.96 = 3.04 Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.96) Score Difference (End): 10 (10.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 24, CONN 14 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 27 yards Win Probability (Before): 85.2% Win Probability (After): 93.8% Away Score: 17 (24) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q4 0:54 | |
(1st & 20 at NCSU 39) Joseph Fagnano pass intercepted - NCSU 24, CONN 14 | -2.69 | 1.0% | -0.4% |
|
Play Type: Interception Return Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 70 Started Drive at: CONN 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.96 - 1.73 = -2.69 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-8.27) Score Difference (End): 10 (10.96) Change of Possession: 1 Score: NCSU 24, CONN 14 Drive Summary: 9 plays, 51 yards Win Probability (Before): 1.0% Win Probability (After): 0.6% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
|||||
| Q1 15:00 | |
(4th & 1 at NCSU 47) Joseph Fagnano run for 2 yds to the NCSU 45 for a 1ST down - NCSU 0, CONN 0 | 2.34 | 9.9% | 1.8% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 45 Started Drive at: CONN 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.06 - 0.72 = 2.34 Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.72) Score Difference (End): 0 (3.06) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 0, CONN 0 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 30 yards Win Probability (Before): 9.9% Win Probability (After): 11.8% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
|||||
| Q1 15:00 | |
(3rd & 5 at CONN 30) Joseph Fagnano pass complete to Cameron Ross for 14 yds to the CONN 44 for a 1ST down - NCSU 0, CONN 0 | 2.34 | 9.2% | 2.0% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 56 Started Drive at: CONN 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.35 - 0.01 = 2.34 Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.01) Score Difference (End): 0 (2.35) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 0, CONN 0 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 19 yards Win Probability (Before): 9.2% Win Probability (After): 11.2% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q3 3:12 | |
(4th & 2 at CONN 3) ARMSTRONG, Brennan pass short to the right incomplete intended for LESANE, Keyon thrown to the UCN0, clock 03:12. PENALTY UCN Pass Interference on FAUMUINA-BROWN, Tui enforced 1 yards to the UCN2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down). - NCSU 10, CONN 7 | 2.33 | 84.9% | 1.7% |
|
Play Type: Penalty Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 2 Started Drive at: NCSU 9 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.74 - 3.41 = 2.33 Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.41) Score Difference (End): 3 (8.74) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 10, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 9 plays, 73 yards Win Probability (Before): 84.9% Win Probability (After): 86.6% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
|||||
| Q3 12:40 | |
(3rd & 7 at CONN 17) Joseph Fagnano pass complete to Devontae Houston for 9 yds to the CONN 26 for a 1ST down - NCSU 10, CONN 7 | 2.25 | 14.5% | 2.5% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 83 -> 74 Started Drive at: CONN 14 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.97 - -1.28 = 2.25 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-4.28) Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.03) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 10, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 12 yards Win Probability (Before): 14.5% Win Probability (After): 17.0% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q4 3:14 | |
(4th & 2 at CONN 28) Victor Rosa run for 3 yds to the CONN 31 for a 1ST down - NCSU 24, CONN 14 | 2.14 | 1.3% | 1.3% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 69 Started Drive at: CONN 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.17 - -0.97 = 2.14 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-10.97) Score Difference (End): -10 (-8.83) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 24, CONN 14 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 11 yards Win Probability (Before): 1.3% Win Probability (After): 2.5% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
|||||
Most Important Plays [show/hide]
As determined by absolute WPA.
| Time | Offense | Play Description | EPA | WP% | WPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2:04 | |
(1st & 10 at CONN 29) Victor Rosa run for 71 yds for a TD UConn Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Victor Rosa) to the NCSU 0 (Joe McFadden KICK) - NCSU 17, CONN 14 | 6.48 | 8.6% | 17.0% |
|
Play Type: Rushing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 99 Started Drive at: NCSU 29 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 0.55 = 6.48 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.48) Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 17, CONN 14 Drive Summary: 1 play, 71 yards Win Probability (Before): 8.6% Win Probability (After): 25.6% Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 7 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
|||||
| Q3 0:34 | |
(3rd & Goal at CONN 8) Brennan Armstrong run for 8 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK) - NCSU 24, CONN 14 | 3.04 | 85.2% | 8.6% |
|
Play Type: Rushing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 99 Started Drive at: CONN 27 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.96 = 3.04 Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.96) Score Difference (End): 10 (10.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 24, CONN 14 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 27 yards Win Probability (Before): 85.2% Win Probability (After): 93.8% Away Score: 17 (24) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q2 0:00 | |
(4th & 4 at CONN 27) Brayden Narveson 44 yd FG GOOD - NCSU 10, CONN 7 | 0.66 | 82.4% | 6.4% |
|
Play Type: Field Goal Good Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 65 Started Drive at: NCSU 15 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.34 = 0.66 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.34) Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 10, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 11 plays, 59 yards Win Probability (Before): 82.4% Win Probability (After): 88.8% Away Score: 7 (10) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
|||||
| Q3 1:54 | |
(Kickoff at NCSU 20) Joe McFadden kickoff for 62 yds , return for no gain to the CONN 27 - NCSU 17, CONN 14 | 1.99 | 80.8% | 5.9% |
|
Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense) Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 27 Started Drive at: CONN 27 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.45 - 1.46 = 1.99 Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.46) Score Difference (End): 3 (6.45) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 17, CONN 14 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 80.8% Win Probability (After): 86.6% Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q2 4:34 | |
(4th & 4 at CONN 33) Brayden Narveson 50 yd FG MISSED - NCSU 7, CONN 7 | -3.65 | 82.5% | -5.2% |
|
Play Type: Field Goal Missed Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 68 Started Drive at: NCSU 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.85 - 1.80 = -3.65 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.80) Score Difference (End): 0 (1.85) Change of Possession: 1 Score: NCSU 7, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 10 plays, 53 yards Win Probability (Before): 82.5% Win Probability (After): 77.2% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
|||||
| Q1 8:21 | |
(1st & 10 at NCSU 18) Victor Rosa run for 18 yds for a TD (Joe McFadden KICK) - NCSU 0, CONN 7 | 2.13 | 18.9% | 5.1% |
|
Play Type: Rushing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 99 Started Drive at: CONN 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.87 = 2.13 Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.87) Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 0, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 12 plays, 75 yards Win Probability (Before): 18.9% Win Probability (After): 24.0% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q1 1:41 | |
(4th & 4 at CONN 44) George Caratan punt for 44 yds - NCSU 7, CONN 7 | 0.18 | 12.8% | 4.2% |
|
Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 88 Started Drive at: CONN 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.31 - -0.49 = 0.18 Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.49) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.31) Change of Possession: 1 Score: NCSU 7, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 19 yards Win Probability (Before): 12.8% Win Probability (After): 17.0% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
|||||
| Q2 4:34 | |
(3rd & 7 at CONN 35) Joseph Fagnano pass incomplete - NCSU 7, CONN 7 | -1.57 | 20.5% | -3.9% |
|
Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 65 Started Drive at: CONN 32 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.80 - 0.77 = -1.57 Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.77) Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.80) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 7, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 3 yards Win Probability (Before): 20.5% Win Probability (After): 16.6% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q1 8:55 | |
(2nd & 6 at NCSU 31) Joseph Fagnano run for 13 yds to the NCSU 18 for a 1ST down - NCSU 0, CONN 0 | 0.83 | 16.9% | -3.8% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 31 -> 18 Started Drive at: CONN 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.59 - 3.76 = 0.83 Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.76) Score Difference (End): 0 (4.59) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 0, CONN 0 Drive Summary: 11 plays, 57 yards Win Probability (Before): 16.9% Win Probability (After): 13.2% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q3 2:22 | |
(2nd & Goal at CONN 1) Delbert Mimms III run for 1 yd for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK) - NCSU 17, CONN 7 | 0.70 | 89.0% | 3.7% |
|
Play Type: Rushing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99 Started Drive at: NCSU 9 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.30 = 0.70 Score Difference (Before): 3 (9.30) Score Difference (End): 10 (10.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 17, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 11 plays, 75 yards Win Probability (Before): 89.0% Win Probability (After): 92.7% Away Score: 10 (17) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
Scoring Plays [show/hide]
| Time | Offense | Play Description | EPA | WP% | WPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 8:21 | |
(1st & 10 at NCSU 18) Victor Rosa run for 18 yds for a TD (Joe McFadden KICK) - NCSU 0, CONN 7 | 2.13 | 18.9% | 5.1% |
|
Play Type: Rushing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 99 Started Drive at: CONN 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.87 = 2.13 Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.87) Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 0, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 12 plays, 75 yards Win Probability (Before): 18.9% Win Probability (After): 24.0% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q1 3:48 | |
(1st & Goal at CONN 4) Brennan Armstrong run for 4 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK) - NCSU 7, CONN 7 | 1.07 | 81.4% | 2.9% |
|
Play Type: Rushing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 99 Started Drive at: NCSU 34 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.93 = 1.07 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-1.07) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 7, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 9 plays, 66 yards Win Probability (Before): 81.4% Win Probability (After): 84.3% Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q2 0:00 | |
(4th & 4 at CONN 27) Brayden Narveson 44 yd FG GOOD - NCSU 10, CONN 7 | 0.66 | 82.4% | 6.4% |
|
Play Type: Field Goal Good Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 65 Started Drive at: NCSU 15 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.34 = 0.66 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.34) Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 10, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 11 plays, 59 yards Win Probability (Before): 82.4% Win Probability (After): 88.8% Away Score: 7 (10) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
|||||
| Q3 2:22 | |
(2nd & Goal at CONN 1) Delbert Mimms III run for 1 yd for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK) - NCSU 17, CONN 7 | 0.70 | 89.0% | 3.7% |
|
Play Type: Rushing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99 Started Drive at: NCSU 9 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.30 = 0.70 Score Difference (Before): 3 (9.30) Score Difference (End): 10 (10.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 17, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 11 plays, 75 yards Win Probability (Before): 89.0% Win Probability (After): 92.7% Away Score: 10 (17) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q3 2:04 | |
(1st & 10 at CONN 29) Victor Rosa run for 71 yds for a TD UConn Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Victor Rosa) to the NCSU 0 (Joe McFadden KICK) - NCSU 17, CONN 14 | 6.48 | 8.6% | 17.0% |
|
Play Type: Rushing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 99 Started Drive at: NCSU 29 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 0.55 = 6.48 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.48) Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 17, CONN 14 Drive Summary: 1 play, 71 yards Win Probability (Before): 8.6% Win Probability (After): 25.6% Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 7 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
|||||
| Q3 0:34 | |
(3rd & Goal at CONN 8) Brennan Armstrong run for 8 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK) - NCSU 24, CONN 14 | 3.04 | 85.2% | 8.6% |
|
Play Type: Rushing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 99 Started Drive at: CONN 27 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.96 = 3.04 Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.96) Score Difference (End): 10 (10.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 24, CONN 14 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 27 yards Win Probability (Before): 85.2% Win Probability (After): 93.8% Away Score: 17 (24) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
All Plays [show/hide]
| Time | Offense | Play Description | EPA | WP% | WPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | |
(Kickoff at CONN 35) Collin Smith kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - NCSU 0, CONN 0 | 0.00 | 10.0% | 0.0% |
|
Play Type: Kickoff Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75 Started Drive at: CONN 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.86 - 0.86 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.86) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.86) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 0, CONN 0 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 10.0% Win Probability (After): 10.0% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q1 15:00 | |
(1st & 10 at CONN 25) Devontae Houston run for a loss of 1 yard to the CONN 24 - NCSU 0, CONN 0 | -1.18 | 10.0% | -0.7% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 76 Started Drive at: CONN 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.32 - 0.86 = -1.18 Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.86) Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.32) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 0, CONN 0 Drive Summary: 1 play, -1 yards Win Probability (Before): 10.0% Win Probability (After): 9.3% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q1 15:00 | |
(2nd & 11 at CONN 24) Joseph Fagnano pass complete to Geordon Porter for 6 yds to the CONN 30 - NCSU 0, CONN 0 | 0.33 | 9.3% | -0.1% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 70 Started Drive at: CONN 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.01 - -0.32 = 0.33 Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.32) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.01) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 0, CONN 0 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 5 yards Win Probability (Before): 9.3% Win Probability (After): 9.2% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q1 15:00 | |
(3rd & 5 at CONN 30) Joseph Fagnano pass complete to Cameron Ross for 14 yds to the CONN 44 for a 1ST down - NCSU 0, CONN 0 | 2.34 | 9.2% | 2.0% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 56 Started Drive at: CONN 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.35 - 0.01 = 2.34 Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.01) Score Difference (End): 0 (2.35) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 0, CONN 0 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 19 yards Win Probability (Before): 9.2% Win Probability (After): 11.2% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q1 15:00 | |
(1st & 10 at CONN 44) Devontae Houston run for 2 yds to the CONN 46 - NCSU 0, CONN 0 | -0.57 | 11.2% | -0.9% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 54 Started Drive at: CONN 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.79 - 2.35 = -0.57 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.35) Score Difference (End): 0 (1.79) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 0, CONN 0 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 21 yards Win Probability (Before): 11.2% Win Probability (After): 10.3% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q1 15:00 | |
(2nd & 8 at CONN 46) Joseph Fagnano pass complete to Geordon Porter for 6 yds to the NCSU 48 - NCSU 0, CONN 0 | 0.30 | 10.3% | 0.4% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 48 Started Drive at: CONN 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.09 - 1.79 = 0.30 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.79) Score Difference (End): 0 (2.09) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 0, CONN 0 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 27 yards Win Probability (Before): 10.3% Win Probability (After): 10.8% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q1 15:00 | |
(3rd & 2 at NCSU 48) Victor Rosa run for 1 yd to the NCSU 47 - NCSU 0, CONN 0 | -1.37 | 10.8% | -0.8% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 47 Started Drive at: CONN 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.72 - 2.09 = -1.37 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.09) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.72) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 0, CONN 0 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 28 yards Win Probability (Before): 10.8% Win Probability (After): 9.9% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q1 15:00 | |
(4th & 1 at NCSU 47) Joseph Fagnano run for 2 yds to the NCSU 45 for a 1ST down - NCSU 0, CONN 0 | 2.34 | 9.9% | 1.8% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 45 Started Drive at: CONN 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.06 - 0.72 = 2.34 Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.72) Score Difference (End): 0 (3.06) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 0, CONN 0 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 30 yards Win Probability (Before): 9.9% Win Probability (After): 11.8% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
|||||
| Q1 15:00 | |
(1st & 10 at NCSU 45) Alexander Honig pass incomplete - NCSU 0, CONN 0 | -0.70 | 11.8% | -0.7% |
|
Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 45 Started Drive at: CONN 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.36 - 3.06 = -0.70 Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.06) Score Difference (End): 0 (2.36) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 0, CONN 0 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 30 yards Win Probability (Before): 11.8% Win Probability (After): 11.1% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q1 15:00 | |
(2nd & 10 at NCSU 45) Joseph Fagnano run for 10 yds to the NCSU 35 for a 1ST down - NCSU 0, CONN 0 | 1.25 | 11.1% | 1.1% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 35 Started Drive at: CONN 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.61 - 2.36 = 1.25 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.36) Score Difference (End): 0 (3.61) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 0, CONN 0 Drive Summary: 9 plays, 40 yards Win Probability (Before): 11.1% Win Probability (After): 12.2% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q1 15:00 | |
(1st & 10 at NCSU 35) Victor Rosa run for 4 yds to the NCSU 31 - NCSU 0, CONN 0 | 0.00 | 12.2% | -0.1% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 31 Started Drive at: CONN 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.62 - 3.61 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.61) Score Difference (End): 0 (3.62) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 0, CONN 0 Drive Summary: 10 plays, 44 yards Win Probability (Before): 12.2% Win Probability (After): 12.1% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q1 8:55 | |
(2nd & 6 at NCSU 31) Joseph Fagnano run for 13 yds to the NCSU 18 for a 1ST down - NCSU 0, CONN 0 | 0.83 | 16.9% | -3.8% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 31 -> 18 Started Drive at: CONN 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.59 - 3.76 = 0.83 Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.76) Score Difference (End): 0 (4.59) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 0, CONN 0 Drive Summary: 11 plays, 57 yards Win Probability (Before): 16.9% Win Probability (After): 13.2% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q1 8:21 | |
(1st & 10 at NCSU 18) Victor Rosa run for 18 yds for a TD (Joe McFadden KICK) - NCSU 0, CONN 7 | 2.13 | 18.9% | 5.1% |
|
Play Type: Rushing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 99 Started Drive at: CONN 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.87 = 2.13 Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.87) Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 0, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 12 plays, 75 yards Win Probability (Before): 18.9% Win Probability (After): 24.0% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q1 8:15 | |
(Kickoff at NCSU 35) Joe McFadden kickoff for 54 yds - NCSU 0, CONN 7 | 1.00 | 76.0% | 1.2% |
|
Play Type: Kickoff Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 66 Started Drive at: NCSU 34 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.95 - -0.06 = 1.00 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.06) Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.05) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 0, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 76.0% Win Probability (After): 77.2% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q1 8:15 | |
(1st & 10 at NCSU 34) Jordan Houston run for 15 yds to the NCSU 49 for a 1ST down - NCSU 0, CONN 7 | 0.91 | 77.2% | 2.3% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 51 Started Drive at: NCSU 34 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.86 - 0.95 = 0.91 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.05) Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.14) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 0, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 1 play, 15 yards Win Probability (Before): 77.2% Win Probability (After): 79.5% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q1 8:15 | |
(1st & 10 at NCSU 49) Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keyon Lesane for 12 yds to the CONN 39 for a 1ST down - NCSU 0, CONN 7 | 0.98 | 79.5% | 1.2% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 39 Started Drive at: NCSU 34 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.83 - 1.86 = 0.98 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.14) Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.17) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 0, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 27 yards Win Probability (Before): 79.5% Win Probability (After): 80.8% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q1 8:15 | |
(1st & 10 at CONN 39) Brennan Armstrong run for 5 yds to the CONN 34 - NCSU 0, CONN 7 | 0.19 | 80.8% | -0.0% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 34 Started Drive at: NCSU 34 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.02 - 2.83 = 0.19 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.17) Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.98) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 0, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 32 yards Win Probability (Before): 80.8% Win Probability (After): 80.8% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q1 8:15 | |
(2nd & 5 at CONN 34) Jordan Houston run for 4 yds to the CONN 30 - NCSU 0, CONN 7 | 0.11 | 80.8% | -0.3% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 30 Started Drive at: NCSU 34 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.13 - 3.02 = 0.11 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.98) Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.87) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 0, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 36 yards Win Probability (Before): 80.8% Win Probability (After): 80.5% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q1 8:15 | |
(3rd & 1 at CONN 30) Delbert Mimms III run for 16 yds to the CONN 14 for a 1ST down - NCSU 0, CONN 7 | 1.64 | 80.5% | 3.0% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 14 Started Drive at: NCSU 34 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.77 - 3.13 = 1.64 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.87) Score Difference (End): -7 (-2.23) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 0, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 52 yards Win Probability (Before): 80.5% Win Probability (After): 83.5% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q1 8:15 | |
(1st & 10 at CONN 14) Jordan Houston run for 3 yds to the CONN 11 - NCSU 0, CONN 7 | -0.29 | 83.5% | -0.4% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 11 Started Drive at: NCSU 34 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.48 - 4.77 = -0.29 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-2.23) Score Difference (End): -7 (-2.52) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 0, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 55 yards Win Probability (Before): 83.5% Win Probability (After): 83.1% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q1 8:15 | |
(2nd & 7 at CONN 11) Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Jordan Houston for a loss of 1 yard to the CONN 12 - NCSU 0, CONN 7 | -0.99 | 83.1% | -1.4% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 12 Started Drive at: NCSU 34 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.49 - 4.48 = -0.99 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-2.52) Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.51) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 0, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 54 yards Win Probability (Before): 83.1% Win Probability (After): 81.7% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q1 8:15 | |
(3rd & 8 at CONN 12) Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Porter Rooks for 8 yds to the CONN 4 for a 1ST down - NCSU 0, CONN 7 | 1.96 | 81.7% | 2.2% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 4 Started Drive at: NCSU 34 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.45 - 3.49 = 1.96 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.51) Score Difference (End): -7 (-1.55) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 0, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 62 yards Win Probability (Before): 81.7% Win Probability (After): 84.0% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q1 3:48 | |
(1st & Goal at CONN 4) Brennan Armstrong run for 4 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK) - NCSU 7, CONN 7 | 1.07 | 81.4% | 2.9% |
|
Play Type: Rushing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 99 Started Drive at: NCSU 34 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.93 = 1.07 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-1.07) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 7, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 9 plays, 66 yards Win Probability (Before): 81.4% Win Probability (After): 84.3% Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q1 3:48 | |
(Kickoff at CONN 35) Collin Smith kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - NCSU 7, CONN 7 | 0.00 | 15.3% | 0.0% |
|
Play Type: Kickoff Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75 Started Drive at: CONN 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.07 - 1.07 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.07) Score Difference (End): 0 (1.07) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 7, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 15.3% Win Probability (After): 15.3% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q1 3:48 | |
(1st & 10 at CONN 25) Brian Brewton run for 8 yds to the CONN 33 - NCSU 7, CONN 7 | 0.76 | 15.3% | 1.1% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 67 Started Drive at: CONN 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.82 - 1.07 = 0.76 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.07) Score Difference (End): 0 (1.82) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 7, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 1 play, 8 yards Win Probability (Before): 15.3% Win Probability (After): 16.3% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q1 3:48 | |
(2nd & 2 at CONN 33) Brian Brewton run for 5 yds to the CONN 38 for a 1ST down - NCSU 7, CONN 7 | 0.25 | 16.3% | 0.4% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 62 Started Drive at: CONN 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.07 - 1.82 = 0.25 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.82) Score Difference (End): 0 (2.07) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 7, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 13 yards Win Probability (Before): 16.3% Win Probability (After): 16.7% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q1 3:48 | |
(1st & 10 at CONN 38) Brian Brewton run for 6 yds to the CONN 44 - NCSU 7, CONN 7 | 0.29 | 16.7% | 0.9% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 56 Started Drive at: CONN 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.36 - 2.07 = 0.29 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.07) Score Difference (End): 0 (2.36) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 7, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 19 yards Win Probability (Before): 16.7% Win Probability (After): 17.6% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q1 3:48 | |
(2nd & 4 at CONN 44) Joseph Fagnano pass incomplete - NCSU 7, CONN 7 | -0.96 | 17.6% | -2.2% |
|
Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 56 Started Drive at: CONN 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.40 - 2.36 = -0.96 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.36) Score Difference (End): 0 (1.40) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 7, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 19 yards Win Probability (Before): 17.6% Win Probability (After): 15.4% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q1 3:48 | |
(3rd & 4 at CONN 44) Joseph Fagnano pass incomplete - NCSU 7, CONN 7 | -1.96 | 15.4% | -1.8% |
|
Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 56 Started Drive at: CONN 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.56 - 1.40 = -1.96 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.40) Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.56) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 7, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 19 yards Win Probability (Before): 15.4% Win Probability (After): 13.6% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q1 1:41 | |
(4th & 4 at CONN 44) George Caratan punt for 44 yds - NCSU 7, CONN 7 | 0.18 | 12.8% | 4.2% |
|
Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 88 Started Drive at: CONN 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.31 - -0.49 = 0.18 Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.49) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.31) Change of Possession: 1 Score: NCSU 7, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 19 yards Win Probability (Before): 12.8% Win Probability (After): 17.0% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
|||||
| Q1 1:41 | |
(1st & 10 at NCSU 12) Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 5 yds to the NCSU 17 - NCSU 7, CONN 7 | 0.07 | 83.0% | 0.0% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 88 -> 83 Started Drive at: NCSU 12 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.43 - 0.36 = 0.07 Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.36) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.43) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 7, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards Win Probability (Before): 83.0% Win Probability (After): 83.1% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q1 1:18 | |
(3rd & 5 at NCSU 17) Timeout UConn, clock 01:18 - NCSU 7, CONN 7 | 0.00 | 83.2% | 0.0% |
|
Play Type: Timeout Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 83 -> 83 Started Drive at: NCSU 12 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.43 - 0.43 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.43) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.43) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 7, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards Win Probability (Before): 83.2% Win Probability (After): 83.2% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
|||||
| Q1 1:18 | |
(2nd & 5 at NCSU 17) Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete - NCSU 7, CONN 7 | -0.97 | 83.3% | -1.8% |
|
Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 83 -> 83 Started Drive at: NCSU 12 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.51 - 0.46 = -0.97 Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.46) Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.51) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 7, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 5 yards Win Probability (Before): 83.3% Win Probability (After): 81.6% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
|||||
| Q1 1:18 | |
(3rd & 5 at NCSU 17) Brennan Armstrong run for 8 yds to the NCSU 25 for a 1ST down - NCSU 7, CONN 7 | 1.66 | 81.6% | 2.3% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 83 -> 75 Started Drive at: NCSU 12 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.16 - -0.51 = 1.66 Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.51) Score Difference (End): 0 (1.16) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 7, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 13 yards Win Probability (Before): 81.6% Win Probability (After): 83.9% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
|||||
| Q1 0:00 | |
(1st & 10 at NCSU 25) Delbert Mimms III run for 1 yd to the NCSU 26 - NCSU 7, CONN 7 | -0.58 | 81.4% | 2.2% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 74 Started Drive at: NCSU 12 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.59 - 1.16 = -0.58 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.16) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.59) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 7, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 14 yards Win Probability (Before): 81.4% Win Probability (After): 83.6% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
|||||
| Q2 15:00 | |
(2nd & 9 at NCSU 26) Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete - NCSU 7, CONN 7 | -1.04 | 83.0% | -1.8% |
|
Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 74 Started Drive at: NCSU 12 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.45 - 0.59 = -1.04 Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.59) Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.45) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 7, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 14 yards Win Probability (Before): 83.0% Win Probability (After): 81.3% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
|||||
| Q2 15:00 | |
(3rd & 9 at NCSU 26) Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete - NCSU 7, CONN 7 | -1.41 | 81.3% | -2.4% |
|
Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 74 Started Drive at: NCSU 12 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.86 - -0.45 = -1.41 Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.45) Score Difference (End): 0 (-1.86) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 7, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 14 yards Win Probability (Before): 81.3% Win Probability (After): 78.9% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
|||||
| Q2 14:43 | |
(4th & 9 at NCSU 26) Caden Noonkester punt for 45 yds - NCSU 7, CONN 7 | 0.19 | 80.3% | 3.6% |
|
Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 71 Started Drive at: NCSU 12 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.63 - -1.82 = 0.19 Score Difference (Before): 0 (-1.82) Score Difference (End): 0 (1.63) Change of Possession: 1 Score: NCSU 7, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 14 yards Win Probability (Before): 80.3% Win Probability (After): 83.8% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
|||||
| Q2 14:43 | |
(1st & 10 at CONN 29) Joseph Fagnano pass complete to Brett Buckman for 7 yds to the CONN 36 - NCSU 7, CONN 7 | 0.41 | 16.8% | 0.8% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 64 Started Drive at: CONN 29 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.07 - 1.66 = 0.41 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.66) Score Difference (End): 0 (2.07) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 7, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 1 play, 7 yards Win Probability (Before): 16.8% Win Probability (After): 17.6% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q2 14:43 | |
(2nd & 3 at CONN 36) Devontae Houston run for 8 yds to the CONN 44 for a 1ST down - NCSU 7, CONN 7 | 0.50 | 17.6% | 0.9% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 56 Started Drive at: CONN 29 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.56 - 2.07 = 0.50 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.07) Score Difference (End): 0 (2.56) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 7, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 15 yards Win Probability (Before): 17.6% Win Probability (After): 18.5% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q2 14:43 | |
(1st & 10 at CONN 44) Joseph Fagnano pass complete to Devontae Houston for 10 yds to the NCSU 46 for a 1ST down - NCSU 7, CONN 7 | 0.67 | 18.5% | 0.4% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 46 Started Drive at: CONN 29 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.24 - 2.56 = 0.67 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.56) Score Difference (End): 0 (3.24) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 7, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 25 yards Win Probability (Before): 18.5% Win Probability (After): 18.8% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q2 14:43 | |
(1st & 10 at NCSU 46) Joseph Fagnano pass incomplete - NCSU 7, CONN 7 | -0.65 | 18.8% | -0.3% |
|
Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 46 Started Drive at: CONN 29 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.58 - 3.24 = -0.65 Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.24) Score Difference (End): 0 (2.58) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 7, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 25 yards Win Probability (Before): 18.8% Win Probability (After): 18.5% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q2 14:43 | |
(2nd & 10 at NCSU 46) Devontae Houston run for 2 yds to the NCSU 44 - NCSU 7, CONN 7 | -0.85 | 18.5% | -1.3% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 44 Started Drive at: CONN 29 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.73 - 2.58 = -0.85 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.58) Score Difference (End): 0 (1.73) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 7, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 27 yards Win Probability (Before): 18.5% Win Probability (After): 17.2% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q2 14:43 | |
(3rd & 8 at NCSU 44) UConn Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCSU 49 - NCSU 7, CONN 7 | -0.90 | 17.2% | -1.7% |
|
Play Type: Penalty Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 49 Started Drive at: CONN 29 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.84 - 1.73 = -0.90 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.73) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.84) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 7, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 27 yards Win Probability (Before): 17.2% Win Probability (After): 15.5% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q2 14:43 | |
(3rd & 13 at NCSU 49) Joseph Fagnano run for 1 yd to the NCSU 48 - NCSU 7, CONN 7 | -1.32 | 15.5% | -1.2% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 48 Started Drive at: CONN 29 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.49 - 0.84 = -1.32 Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.84) Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.49) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 7, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 28 yards Win Probability (Before): 15.5% Win Probability (After): 14.3% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q2 10:37 | |
(4th & 12 at NCSU 48) George Caratan punt for 48 yds for a touchback - NCSU 7, CONN 7 | -0.58 | 18.9% | -2.3% |
|
Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 80 Started Drive at: CONN 29 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.89 - -0.31 = -0.58 Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.31) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.89) Change of Possession: 1 Score: NCSU 7, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 28 yards Win Probability (Before): 18.9% Win Probability (After): 16.6% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
|||||
| Q2 10:37 | |
(1st & 10 at NCSU 20) Brennan Armstrong run for 6 yds to the NCSU 26 - NCSU 7, CONN 7 | 0.22 | 79.9% | 0.5% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 74 Started Drive at: NCSU 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.13 - 0.92 = 0.22 Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.92) Score Difference (End): 0 (1.13) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 7, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 1 play, 6 yards Win Probability (Before): 79.9% Win Probability (After): 80.4% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
|||||
| Q2 10:37 | |
(2nd & 4 at NCSU 26) Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keyon Lesane for 10 yds to the NCSU 36 for a 1ST down - NCSU 7, CONN 7 | 0.97 | 80.4% | 1.9% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 64 Started Drive at: NCSU 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.10 - 1.13 = 0.97 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.13) Score Difference (End): 0 (2.10) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 7, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 16 yards Win Probability (Before): 80.4% Win Probability (After): 82.3% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
|||||
| Q2 10:37 | |
(1st & 10 at NCSU 36) Keyon Lesane run for 8 yds to the NCSU 44 - NCSU 7, CONN 7 | 0.64 | 82.3% | 0.4% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 56 Started Drive at: NCSU 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.74 - 2.10 = 0.64 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.10) Score Difference (End): 0 (2.74) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 7, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 24 yards Win Probability (Before): 82.3% Win Probability (After): 82.7% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
|||||
| Q2 10:37 | |
(2nd & 2 at NCSU 44) Michael Allen run for 3 yds to the NCSU 47 for a 1ST down - NCSU 7, CONN 7 | -0.03 | 82.7% | 0.2% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 53 Started Drive at: NCSU 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.71 - 2.74 = -0.03 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.74) Score Difference (End): 0 (2.71) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 7, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 27 yards Win Probability (Before): 82.7% Win Probability (After): 82.8% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
|||||
| Q2 10:37 | |
(1st & 10 at NCSU 47) Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Julian Gray for 5 yds to the CONN 48 - NCSU 7, CONN 7 | 0.14 | 82.8% | 0.1% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 48 Started Drive at: NCSU 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.85 - 2.71 = 0.14 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.71) Score Difference (End): 0 (2.85) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 7, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 32 yards Win Probability (Before): 82.8% Win Probability (After): 83.0% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
|||||
| Q2 10:37 | |
(2nd & 5 at CONN 48) Brennan Armstrong run for 2 yds to the CONN 46 - NCSU 7, CONN 7 | -0.56 | 83.0% | -0.3% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 46 Started Drive at: NCSU 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.29 - 2.85 = -0.56 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.85) Score Difference (End): 0 (2.29) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 7, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 34 yards Win Probability (Before): 83.0% Win Probability (After): 82.6% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
|||||
| Q2 10:37 | |
(3rd & 3 at CONN 46) Michael Allen run for 8 yds to the CONN 38 for a 1ST down - NCSU 7, CONN 7 | 1.35 | 82.6% | 1.8% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 38 Started Drive at: NCSU 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.64 - 2.29 = 1.35 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.29) Score Difference (End): 0 (3.64) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 7, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 42 yards Win Probability (Before): 82.6% Win Probability (After): 84.4% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
|||||
| Q2 10:37 | |
(1st & 10 at CONN 38) Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Trent Pennix for 7 yds to the CONN 31 - NCSU 7, CONN 7 | 0.52 | 84.4% | 0.5% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 31 Started Drive at: NCSU 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.16 - 3.64 = 0.52 Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.64) Score Difference (End): 0 (4.16) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 7, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 49 yards Win Probability (Before): 84.4% Win Probability (After): 84.9% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
|||||
| Q2 10:37 | |
(2nd & 3 at CONN 31) NC State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the CONN 36 - NCSU 7, CONN 7 | -0.95 | 84.9% | -1.3% |
|
Play Type: Penalty Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 31 -> 36 Started Drive at: NCSU 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.21 - 4.16 = -0.95 Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.16) Score Difference (End): 0 (3.21) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 7, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 49 yards Win Probability (Before): 84.9% Win Probability (After): 83.6% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
|||||
| Q2 10:37 | |
(2nd & 8 at CONN 36) Brennan Armstrong run for 6 yds to the CONN 30 - NCSU 7, CONN 7 | 0.41 | 83.6% | 0.5% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 30 Started Drive at: NCSU 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.62 - 3.21 = 0.41 Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.21) Score Difference (End): 0 (3.62) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 7, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 9 plays, 55 yards Win Probability (Before): 83.6% Win Probability (After): 84.1% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
|||||
| Q2 10:37 | |
(3rd & 2 at CONN 30) Delbert Mimms III run for a loss of 2 yards to the CONN 32 - NCSU 7, CONN 7 | -1.79 | 84.1% | -2.1% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 32 Started Drive at: NCSU 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.83 - 3.62 = -1.79 Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.62) Score Difference (End): 0 (1.83) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 7, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 10 plays, 53 yards Win Probability (Before): 84.1% Win Probability (After): 82.0% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
|||||
| Q2 4:34 | |
(4th & 4 at CONN 33) Brayden Narveson 50 yd FG MISSED - NCSU 7, CONN 7 | -3.65 | 82.5% | -5.2% |
|
Play Type: Field Goal Missed Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 68 Started Drive at: NCSU 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.85 - 1.80 = -3.65 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.80) Score Difference (End): 0 (1.85) Change of Possession: 1 Score: NCSU 7, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 10 plays, 53 yards Win Probability (Before): 82.5% Win Probability (After): 77.2% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
|||||
| Q2 4:34 | |
(1st & 10 at CONN 32) Joseph Fagnano pass complete to Justin Joly for no gain to the CONN 32 - NCSU 7, CONN 7 | -0.68 | 23.9% | -2.4% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 68 Started Drive at: CONN 32 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.99 - 1.67 = -0.68 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.67) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.99) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 7, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 23.9% Win Probability (After): 21.4% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q2 4:34 | |
(2nd & 10 at CONN 32) Victor Rosa run for 3 yds to the CONN 35 - NCSU 7, CONN 7 | -0.23 | 21.4% | -0.9% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 65 Started Drive at: CONN 32 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.77 - 0.99 = -0.23 Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.99) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.77) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 7, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 3 yards Win Probability (Before): 21.4% Win Probability (After): 20.5% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q2 4:34 | |
(3rd & 7 at CONN 35) Joseph Fagnano pass incomplete - NCSU 7, CONN 7 | -1.57 | 20.5% | -3.9% |
|
Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 65 Started Drive at: CONN 32 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.80 - 0.77 = -1.57 Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.77) Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.80) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 7, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 3 yards Win Probability (Before): 20.5% Win Probability (After): 16.6% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q2 2:56 | |
(4th & 7 at CONN 35) George Caratan punt for 50 yds, downed at the NCSU 15 - NCSU 7, CONN 7 | 0.13 | 17.0% | 2.6% |
|
Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 85 Started Drive at: CONN 32 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.73 - -0.86 = 0.13 Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.86) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.73) Change of Possession: 1 Score: NCSU 7, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 3 yards Win Probability (Before): 17.0% Win Probability (After): 19.6% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
|||||
| Q2 2:56 | |
(1st & 10 at NCSU 15) Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 11 yds to the NCSU 26 for a 1ST down - NCSU 7, CONN 7 | 0.72 | 79.7% | 1.8% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 85 -> 74 Started Drive at: NCSU 15 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.58 - 0.86 = 0.72 Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.86) Score Difference (End): 0 (1.58) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 7, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 1 play, 11 yards Win Probability (Before): 79.7% Win Probability (After): 81.6% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
|||||
| Q2 2:56 | |
(1st & 10 at NCSU 26) Brennan Armstrong run for 6 yds to the NCSU 32 - NCSU 7, CONN 7 | -0.12 | 81.6% | -0.2% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 68 Started Drive at: NCSU 15 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.46 - 1.58 = -0.12 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.58) Score Difference (End): 0 (1.46) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 7, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 17 yards Win Probability (Before): 81.6% Win Probability (After): 81.4% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
|||||
| Q2 2:56 | |
(2nd & 4 at NCSU 32) Jordan Houston run for 2 yds to the NCSU 34 - NCSU 7, CONN 7 | -0.34 | 81.4% | -0.8% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 66 Started Drive at: NCSU 15 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.12 - 1.46 = -0.34 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.46) Score Difference (End): 0 (1.12) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 7, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 19 yards Win Probability (Before): 81.4% Win Probability (After): 80.5% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
|||||
| Q2 2:56 | |
(3rd & 2 at NCSU 34) Delbert Mimms III run for 3 yds to the NCSU 37 for a 1ST down - NCSU 7, CONN 7 | 0.99 | 80.5% | 1.7% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 63 Started Drive at: NCSU 15 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.11 - 1.12 = 0.99 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.12) Score Difference (End): 0 (2.11) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 7, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 22 yards Win Probability (Before): 80.5% Win Probability (After): 82.2% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
|||||
| Q2 2:56 | |
(1st & 10 at NCSU 37) Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Julian Gray for 9 yds to the NCSU 46 - NCSU 7, CONN 7 | 0.56 | 82.2% | 0.7% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 54 Started Drive at: NCSU 15 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.67 - 2.11 = 0.56 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.11) Score Difference (End): 0 (2.67) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 7, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 31 yards Win Probability (Before): 82.2% Win Probability (After): 82.9% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
|||||
| Q2 0:51 | |
(1st & 10 at CONN 42) Timeout NC State, clock 00:51 - NCSU 7, CONN 7 | 0.00 | 83.7% | 0.0% |
|
Play Type: Timeout Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 42 Started Drive at: NCSU 15 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.67 - 2.67 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.67) Score Difference (End): 0 (2.67) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 7, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 31 yards Win Probability (Before): 83.7% Win Probability (After): 83.7% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
|||||
| Q2 0:51 | |
(2nd & 1 at NCSU 46) Jordan Houston run for 12 yds to the CONN 42 for a 1ST down - NCSU 7, CONN 7 | 0.48 | 81.6% | 1.7% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 42 Started Drive at: NCSU 15 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.53 - 2.06 = 0.48 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.06) Score Difference (End): 0 (2.53) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 7, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 43 yards Win Probability (Before): 81.6% Win Probability (After): 83.2% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
|||||
| Q2 0:51 | |
(1st & 10 at CONN 42) Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete - NCSU 7, CONN 7 | -0.21 | 83.2% | -0.8% |
|
Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 42 Started Drive at: NCSU 15 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.33 - 2.53 = -0.21 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.53) Score Difference (End): 0 (2.33) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 7, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 43 yards Win Probability (Before): 83.2% Win Probability (After): 82.5% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
|||||
| Q2 0:40 | |
(1st & 10 at CONN 32) Timeout NC State, clock 00:40 - NCSU 7, CONN 7 | 0.00 | 84.1% | 0.0% |
|
Play Type: Timeout Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 32 Started Drive at: NCSU 15 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.33 - 2.33 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.33) Score Difference (End): 0 (2.33) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 7, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 43 yards Win Probability (Before): 84.1% Win Probability (After): 84.1% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
|||||
| Q2 0:40 | |
(2nd & 10 at CONN 42) Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Porter Rooks for 10 yds to the CONN 32 for a 1ST down - NCSU 7, CONN 7 | 1.18 | 82.2% | 2.5% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 32 Started Drive at: NCSU 15 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.43 - 2.26 = 1.18 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.26) Score Difference (End): 0 (3.43) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 7, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 53 yards Win Probability (Before): 82.2% Win Probability (After): 84.8% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
|||||
| Q2 0:40 | |
(1st & 10 at CONN 32) Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete - NCSU 7, CONN 7 | -0.21 | 84.8% | -0.3% |
|
Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 32 Started Drive at: NCSU 15 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.23 - 3.43 = -0.21 Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.43) Score Difference (End): 0 (3.23) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 7, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 9 plays, 53 yards Win Probability (Before): 84.8% Win Probability (After): 84.5% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
|||||
| Q2 0:40 | |
(2nd & 10 at CONN 32) Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 8 yds to the CONN 24 - NCSU 7, CONN 7 | 0.40 | 84.5% | 0.2% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 24 Started Drive at: NCSU 15 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.62 - 3.23 = 0.40 Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.23) Score Difference (End): 0 (3.62) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 7, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 10 plays, 61 yards Win Probability (Before): 84.5% Win Probability (After): 84.7% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
|||||
| Q2 0:02 | |
(4th & 4 at CONN 26) Timeout UConn, clock 00:02 - NCSU 7, CONN 7 | 0.00 | 83.5% | 0.0% |
|
Play Type: Timeout Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 26 Started Drive at: NCSU 15 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.62 - 3.62 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.62) Score Difference (End): 0 (3.62) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 7, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 10 plays, 61 yards Win Probability (Before): 83.5% Win Probability (After): 83.5% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
|||||
| Q2 0:02 | |
(3rd & 2 at CONN 24) Jordan Houston run for a loss of 2 yards to the CONN 26 - NCSU 7, CONN 7 | -0.18 | 84.3% | -1.7% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 26 Started Drive at: NCSU 15 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.35 - 2.53 = -0.18 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.53) Score Difference (End): 0 (2.35) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 7, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 11 plays, 59 yards Win Probability (Before): 84.3% Win Probability (After): 82.5% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
|||||
| Q2 0:00 | |
(4th & 4 at CONN 27) Brayden Narveson 44 yd FG GOOD - NCSU 10, CONN 7 | 0.66 | 82.4% | 6.4% |
|
Play Type: Field Goal Good Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 65 Started Drive at: NCSU 15 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.34 = 0.66 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.34) Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 10, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 11 plays, 59 yards Win Probability (Before): 82.4% Win Probability (After): 88.8% Away Score: 7 (10) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
|||||
| Q3 14:49 | |
(Kickoff at NCSU 35) Joe McFadden kickoff for 60 yds - NCSU 10, CONN 7 | 0.24 | 88.8% | -2.4% |
|
Play Type: Kickoff Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 71 Started Drive at: NCSU 29 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.73 - 1.49 = 0.24 Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.49) Score Difference (End): 3 (4.73) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 10, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 88.8% Win Probability (After): 86.3% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q3 14:49 | |
(1st & 10 at NCSU 29) Brennan Armstrong run for 9 yds to the NCSU 38 - NCSU 10, CONN 7 | 0.90 | 89.3% | 1.0% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 62 Started Drive at: NCSU 29 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.77 - 1.87 = 0.90 Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.87) Score Difference (End): 3 (5.77) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 10, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 1 play, 9 yards Win Probability (Before): 89.3% Win Probability (After): 90.3% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q3 14:49 | |
(2nd & 1 at NCSU 38) Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Michael Allen for 5 yds to the NCSU 43 for a 1ST down - NCSU 10, CONN 7 | -0.14 | 90.3% | -0.1% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 57 Started Drive at: NCSU 29 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.63 - 2.77 = -0.14 Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.77) Score Difference (End): 3 (5.63) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 10, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 14 yards Win Probability (Before): 90.3% Win Probability (After): 90.2% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q3 14:49 | |
(1st & 10 at NCSU 43) Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Michael Allen for 3 yds to the NCSU 46 - NCSU 10, CONN 7 | -0.31 | 90.2% | -0.5% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 54 Started Drive at: NCSU 29 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.32 - 2.63 = -0.31 Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.63) Score Difference (End): 3 (5.32) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 10, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 17 yards Win Probability (Before): 90.2% Win Probability (After): 89.7% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q3 14:49 | |
(2nd & 7 at NCSU 46) Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete - NCSU 10, CONN 7 | -0.98 | 89.7% | -1.4% |
|
Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 54 Started Drive at: NCSU 29 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.34 - 2.32 = -0.98 Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.32) Score Difference (End): 3 (4.34) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 10, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 17 yards Win Probability (Before): 89.7% Win Probability (After): 88.3% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q3 14:49 | |
(3rd & 7 at NCSU 46) Brennan Armstrong sacked by Noah Plack and Donovan Branch for a loss of 4 yards to the NCSU 42 - NCSU 10, CONN 7 | -1.91 | 88.3% | -2.4% |
|
Play Type: Sack Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 58 Started Drive at: NCSU 29 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.57 - 1.34 = -1.91 Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.34) Score Difference (End): 3 (2.43) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 10, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 13 yards Win Probability (Before): 88.3% Win Probability (After): 85.9% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q3 12:40 | |
(4th & 11 at NCSU 42) Caden Noonkester punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Brett Buckman at the CONN 14 - NCSU 10, CONN 7 | 0.30 | 83.6% | -3.0% |
|
Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 86 Started Drive at: NCSU 29 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.25 - -0.55 = 0.30 Score Difference (Before): 3 (2.45) Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.75) Change of Possession: 1 Score: NCSU 10, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 13 yards Win Probability (Before): 83.6% Win Probability (After): 80.6% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
|||||
| Q3 12:40 | |
(1st & 10 at CONN 14) Joseph Fagnano pass incomplete - NCSU 10, CONN 7 | -0.70 | 16.3% | -1.3% |
|
Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 86 -> 86 Started Drive at: CONN 14 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.48 - 0.22 = -0.70 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.78) Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.48) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 10, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 16.3% Win Probability (After): 15.0% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q3 12:40 | |
(2nd & 10 at CONN 14) Devontae Houston run for 3 yds to the CONN 17 - NCSU 10, CONN 7 | -0.79 | 15.0% | -0.6% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 86 -> 83 Started Drive at: CONN 14 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.28 - -0.48 = -0.79 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.48) Score Difference (End): -3 (-4.28) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 10, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 3 yards Win Probability (Before): 15.0% Win Probability (After): 14.5% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q3 12:40 | |
(3rd & 7 at CONN 17) Joseph Fagnano pass complete to Devontae Houston for 9 yds to the CONN 26 for a 1ST down - NCSU 10, CONN 7 | 2.25 | 14.5% | 2.5% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 83 -> 74 Started Drive at: CONN 14 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.97 - -1.28 = 2.25 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-4.28) Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.03) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 10, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 12 yards Win Probability (Before): 14.5% Win Probability (After): 17.0% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q3 12:40 | |
(1st & 10 at CONN 26) Devontae Houston run for 8 yds to the CONN 34 - NCSU 10, CONN 7 | 0.71 | 17.0% | 1.7% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 66 Started Drive at: CONN 14 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.68 - 0.97 = 0.71 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.03) Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.32) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 10, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 20 yards Win Probability (Before): 17.0% Win Probability (After): 18.7% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q3 12:40 | |
(2nd & 2 at CONN 34) Devontae Houston run for 2 yds to the CONN 36 for a 1ST down - NCSU 10, CONN 7 | -0.04 | 18.7% | -0.1% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 64 Started Drive at: CONN 14 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.65 - 1.68 = -0.04 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.32) Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.35) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 10, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 22 yards Win Probability (Before): 18.7% Win Probability (After): 18.6% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q3 12:40 | |
(1st & 10 at CONN 36) Joseph Fagnano pass incomplete - NCSU 10, CONN 7 | -0.63 | 18.6% | -1.7% |
|
Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 64 Started Drive at: CONN 14 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.02 - 1.65 = -0.63 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.35) Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.98) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 10, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 22 yards Win Probability (Before): 18.6% Win Probability (After): 16.9% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q3 12:40 | |
(2nd & 10 at CONN 36) Victor Rosa run for a loss of 3 yards to the CONN 33 - NCSU 10, CONN 7 | -1.69 | 16.9% | -3.2% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 67 Started Drive at: CONN 14 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.68 - 1.02 = -1.69 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.98) Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.68) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 10, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 19 yards Win Probability (Before): 16.9% Win Probability (After): 13.8% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q3 12:40 | |
(3rd & 13 at CONN 33) Joseph Fagnano pass incomplete - NCSU 10, CONN 7 | -0.97 | 13.8% | -0.8% |
|
Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 67 Started Drive at: CONN 14 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.65 - -0.68 = -0.97 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.68) Score Difference (End): -3 (-4.65) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 10, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 19 yards Win Probability (Before): 13.8% Win Probability (After): 13.0% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q3 8:49 | |
(4th & 13 at CONN 33) George Caratan punt for 58 yds, downed at the NCSU 9 - NCSU 10, CONN 7 | 1.03 | 16.0% | -1.7% |
|
Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 91 Started Drive at: CONN 14 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.50 - -1.53 = 1.03 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-4.53) Score Difference (End): 3 (3.50) Change of Possession: 1 Score: NCSU 10, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 19 yards Win Probability (Before): 16.0% Win Probability (After): 14.2% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
|||||
| Q3 8:49 | |
(1st & 10 at NCSU 9) ARMSTRONG, Brennan pass deep to the left incomplete intended for TIMMONS JR., Terrell thrown to the NCS49. PENALTY UCN Pass Interference on BIN-WAHAD, Mumu enforced 15 yards to the NCS24 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down). - NCSU 10, CONN 7 | 0.89 | 79.0% | 2.3% |
|
Play Type: Penalty Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 91 -> 76 Started Drive at: CONN 14 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.29 - 0.40 = 0.89 Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.40) Score Difference (End): 3 (4.29) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 10, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 19 yards Win Probability (Before): 79.0% Win Probability (After): 81.3% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q3 8:49 | |
(1st & 10 at NCSU 24) Brennan Armstrong run for 10 yds to the NCSU 34 for a 1ST down - NCSU 10, CONN 7 | 0.88 | 81.3% | 1.1% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 66 Started Drive at: NCSU 9 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.18 - 1.29 = 0.88 Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.29) Score Difference (End): 3 (5.18) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 10, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 1 play, 10 yards Win Probability (Before): 81.3% Win Probability (After): 82.4% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q3 8:49 | |
(1st & 10 at NCSU 34) Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Terrell Timmons Jr. for 18 yds to the CONN 48 for a 1ST down - NCSU 10, CONN 7 | 1.00 | 82.4% | 1.9% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 48 Started Drive at: NCSU 9 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.17 - 2.18 = 1.00 Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.18) Score Difference (End): 3 (6.17) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 10, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 28 yards Win Probability (Before): 82.4% Win Probability (After): 84.3% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q3 8:49 | |
(1st & 10 at CONN 48) Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Michael Allen for 19 yds to the CONN 29 for a 1ST down - NCSU 10, CONN 7 | 1.03 | 84.3% | 0.7% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 29 Started Drive at: NCSU 9 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.20 - 3.17 = 1.03 Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.17) Score Difference (End): 3 (7.20) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 10, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 47 yards Win Probability (Before): 84.3% Win Probability (After): 85.0% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q3 8:49 | |
(1st & 10 at CONN 29) Brennan Armstrong run for 5 yds to the CONN 24 - NCSU 10, CONN 7 | 0.07 | 85.0% | 0.6% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 24 Started Drive at: NCSU 9 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.27 - 4.20 = 0.07 Score Difference (Before): 3 (7.20) Score Difference (End): 3 (7.27) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 10, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 52 yards Win Probability (Before): 85.0% Win Probability (After): 85.7% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q3 8:49 | |
(2nd & 5 at CONN 24) Jordan Houston run for 2 yds to the CONN 22 - NCSU 10, CONN 7 | -0.30 | 85.7% | -0.5% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 22 Started Drive at: NCSU 9 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.97 - 4.27 = -0.30 Score Difference (Before): 3 (7.27) Score Difference (End): 3 (6.97) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 10, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 54 yards Win Probability (Before): 85.7% Win Probability (After): 85.2% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q3 8:49 | |
(3rd & 3 at CONN 22) Brennan Armstrong run for 11 yds to the CONN 11 for a 1ST down - NCSU 10, CONN 7 | 1.17 | 85.2% | 2.7% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 11 Started Drive at: NCSU 9 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.14 - 3.97 = 1.17 Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.97) Score Difference (End): 3 (8.14) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 10, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 65 yards Win Probability (Before): 85.2% Win Probability (After): 87.8% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q3 8:49 | |
(1st & 10 at CONN 11) Jordan Houston run for 7 yds to the CONN 4 - NCSU 10, CONN 7 | 0.57 | 87.8% | 0.4% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 4 Started Drive at: NCSU 9 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.71 - 5.14 = 0.57 Score Difference (Before): 3 (8.14) Score Difference (End): 3 (8.71) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 10, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 72 yards Win Probability (Before): 87.8% Win Probability (After): 88.3% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q3 8:49 | |
(2nd & 3 at CONN 4) Delbert Mimms III run for a loss of 1 yard to the CONN 5 - NCSU 10, CONN 7 | -1.20 | 88.3% | -1.6% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 5 Started Drive at: NCSU 9 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.51 - 5.71 = -1.20 Score Difference (Before): 3 (8.71) Score Difference (End): 3 (7.51) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 10, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 71 yards Win Probability (Before): 88.3% Win Probability (After): 86.7% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q3 3:19 | |
(4th & 2 at CONN 3) Timeout NC State, clock 03:19 - NCSU 10, CONN 7 | 0.00 | 87.1% | 0.0% |
|
Play Type: Timeout Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 3 Started Drive at: NCSU 9 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.51 - 4.51 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): 3 (7.51) Score Difference (End): 3 (7.51) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 10, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 71 yards Win Probability (Before): 87.1% Win Probability (After): 87.1% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
|||||
| Q3 3:19 | |
(3rd & 4 at CONN 5) Delbert Mimms III run for 2 yds to the CONN 3 - NCSU 10, CONN 7 | -1.17 | 86.3% | -1.4% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 3 Started Drive at: NCSU 9 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.41 - 4.58 = -1.17 Score Difference (Before): 3 (7.58) Score Difference (End): 3 (6.41) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 10, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 9 plays, 73 yards Win Probability (Before): 86.3% Win Probability (After): 84.9% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q3 3:12 | |
(4th & 2 at CONN 3) ARMSTRONG, Brennan pass short to the right incomplete intended for LESANE, Keyon thrown to the UCN0, clock 03:12. PENALTY UCN Pass Interference on FAUMUINA-BROWN, Tui enforced 1 yards to the UCN2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down). - NCSU 10, CONN 7 | 2.33 | 84.9% | 1.7% |
|
Play Type: Penalty Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 2 Started Drive at: NCSU 9 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.74 - 3.41 = 2.33 Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.41) Score Difference (End): 3 (8.74) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 10, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 9 plays, 73 yards Win Probability (Before): 84.9% Win Probability (After): 86.6% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
|||||
| Q3 3:12 | |
(1st & Goal at CONN 2) Brennan Armstrong run for 1 yd to the CONN 1 - NCSU 10, CONN 7 | -0.05 | 88.1% | -0.8% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 1 Started Drive at: NCSU 9 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.29 - 6.35 = -0.05 Score Difference (Before): 3 (9.35) Score Difference (End): 3 (9.29) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 10, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 10 plays, 74 yards Win Probability (Before): 88.1% Win Probability (After): 87.3% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q3 2:22 | |
(2nd & Goal at CONN 1) Delbert Mimms III run for 1 yd for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK) - NCSU 17, CONN 7 | 0.70 | 89.0% | 3.7% |
|
Play Type: Rushing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99 Started Drive at: NCSU 9 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.30 = 0.70 Score Difference (Before): 3 (9.30) Score Difference (End): 10 (10.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 17, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 11 plays, 75 yards Win Probability (Before): 89.0% Win Probability (After): 92.7% Away Score: 10 (17) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q3 2:15 | |
(Kickoff at CONN 35) Collin Smith kickoff for 65 yds - NCSU 17, CONN 7 | 0.47 | 8.4% | 0.2% |
|
Play Type: Kickoff Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 71 Started Drive at: NCSU 29 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.52 - 0.05 = 0.47 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.95) Score Difference (End): -10 (-9.48) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 17, CONN 7 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 8.4% Win Probability (After): 8.7% Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
|||||
| Q3 2:04 | |
(1st & 10 at CONN 29) Victor Rosa run for 71 yds for a TD UConn Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Victor Rosa) to the NCSU 0 (Joe McFadden KICK) - NCSU 17, CONN 14 | 6.48 | 8.6% | 17.0% |
|
Play Type: Rushing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 99 Started Drive at: NCSU 29 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 0.55 = 6.48 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.48) Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 17, CONN 14 Drive Summary: 1 play, 71 yards Win Probability (Before): 8.6% Win Probability (After): 25.6% Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 7 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
|||||
| Q3 1:54 | |
(Kickoff at NCSU 20) Joe McFadden kickoff for 62 yds , return for no gain to the CONN 27 - NCSU 17, CONN 14 | 1.99 | 80.8% | 5.9% |
|
Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense) Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 27 Started Drive at: CONN 27 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.45 - 1.46 = 1.99 Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.46) Score Difference (End): 3 (6.45) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 17, CONN 14 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 80.8% Win Probability (After): 86.6% Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q3 1:54 | |
(1st & 10 at CONN 27) Michael Allen run for 18 yds to the CONN 9 for a 1ST down - NCSU 17, CONN 14 | 0.88 | 86.3% | 0.7% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 9 Started Drive at: CONN 27 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.25 - 4.37 = 0.88 Score Difference (Before): 3 (7.37) Score Difference (End): 3 (8.25) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 17, CONN 14 Drive Summary: 1 play, 18 yards Win Probability (Before): 86.3% Win Probability (After): 87.1% Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q3 1:54 | |
(1st & Goal at CONN 9) Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete - NCSU 17, CONN 14 | -0.65 | 87.1% | -0.2% |
|
Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 9 Started Drive at: CONN 27 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.72 - 5.36 = -0.65 Score Difference (Before): 3 (8.36) Score Difference (End): 3 (7.72) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 17, CONN 14 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 18 yards Win Probability (Before): 87.1% Win Probability (After): 86.9% Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q3 1:54 | |
(2nd & Goal at CONN 9) Michael Allen run for 1 yd to the CONN 8 - NCSU 17, CONN 14 | -0.75 | 86.9% | -0.4% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 8 Started Drive at: CONN 27 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.96 - 4.72 = -0.75 Score Difference (Before): 3 (7.72) Score Difference (End): 3 (6.96) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 17, CONN 14 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 19 yards Win Probability (Before): 86.9% Win Probability (After): 86.4% Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q3 0:34 | |
(3rd & Goal at CONN 8) Brennan Armstrong run for 8 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK) - NCSU 24, CONN 14 | 3.04 | 85.2% | 8.6% |
|
Play Type: Rushing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 99 Started Drive at: CONN 27 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.96 = 3.04 Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.96) Score Difference (End): 10 (10.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 24, CONN 14 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 27 yards Win Probability (Before): 85.2% Win Probability (After): 93.8% Away Score: 17 (24) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q3 0:34 | |
(Kickoff at CONN 35) Collin Smith kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - NCSU 24, CONN 14 | 0.00 | 8.0% | 0.0% |
|
Play Type: Kickoff Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75 Started Drive at: CONN 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.24 - 0.24 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.76) Score Difference (End): -10 (-9.76) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 24, CONN 14 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 8.0% Win Probability (After): 8.0% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
|||||
| Q3 0:00 | |
(1st & 10 at CONN 25) Victor Rosa run for 2 yds to the CONN 27 - NCSU 24, CONN 14 | -0.45 | 7.7% | -0.0% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 73 Started Drive at: CONN 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.22 - 0.22 = -0.45 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.78) Score Difference (End): -10 (-10.22) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 24, CONN 14 Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards Win Probability (Before): 7.7% Win Probability (After): 7.7% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
|||||
| Q4 15:00 | |
(2nd & 8 at CONN 27) Joseph Fagnano sacked by Davin Vann for a loss of 3 yards to the CONN 24 - NCSU 24, CONN 14 | -1.49 | 7.6% | -1.7% |
|
Play Type: Sack Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 76 Started Drive at: CONN 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.72 - -0.23 = -1.49 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-10.23) Score Difference (End): -10 (-11.72) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 24, CONN 14 Drive Summary: 2 plays, -1 yards Win Probability (Before): 7.6% Win Probability (After): 5.9% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
|||||
| Q4 15:00 | |
(3rd & 11 at CONN 24) Joseph Fagnano pass incomplete - NCSU 24, CONN 14 | -0.97 | 5.9% | -0.7% |
|
Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 76 Started Drive at: CONN 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.69 - -1.72 = -0.97 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-11.72) Score Difference (End): -10 (-12.69) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 24, CONN 14 Drive Summary: 3 plays, -1 yards Win Probability (Before): 5.9% Win Probability (After): 5.2% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
|||||
| Q4 14:08 | |
(4th & 11 at CONN 24) George Caratan punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jalen Coit at the NCSU 32 - NCSU 24, CONN 14 | 0.21 | 4.9% | 0.4% |
|
Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 68 Started Drive at: CONN 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.44 - -2.65 = 0.21 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-12.65) Score Difference (End): 10 (12.44) Change of Possession: 1 Score: NCSU 24, CONN 14 Drive Summary: 3 plays, -1 yards Win Probability (Before): 4.9% Win Probability (After): 5.3% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
|||||
| Q4 14:08 | |
(1st & 10 at NCSU 32) Brennan Armstrong run for 6 yds to the NCSU 38 - NCSU 24, CONN 14 | 0.19 | 95.1% | 0.2% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 62 Started Drive at: NCSU 32 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.58 - 2.39 = 0.19 Score Difference (Before): 10 (12.39) Score Difference (End): 10 (12.58) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 24, CONN 14 Drive Summary: 1 play, 6 yards Win Probability (Before): 95.1% Win Probability (After): 95.3% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q4 14:08 | |
(2nd & 4 at NCSU 38) Brennan Armstrong run for 7 yds to the NCSU 45 for a 1ST down - NCSU 24, CONN 14 | 0.46 | 95.3% | 0.1% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 55 Started Drive at: NCSU 32 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.04 - 2.58 = 0.46 Score Difference (Before): 10 (12.58) Score Difference (End): 10 (13.04) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 24, CONN 14 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 13 yards Win Probability (Before): 95.3% Win Probability (After): 95.4% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q4 14:08 | |
(1st & 10 at NCSU 45) Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete - NCSU 24, CONN 14 | -0.56 | 95.4% | -0.1% |
|
Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 55 Started Drive at: NCSU 32 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.47 - 3.04 = -0.56 Score Difference (Before): 10 (13.04) Score Difference (End): 10 (12.47) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 24, CONN 14 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 13 yards Win Probability (Before): 95.4% Win Probability (After): 95.3% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q4 14:08 | |
(2nd & 10 at NCSU 45) Jordan Houston run for 7 yds to the CONN 48 - NCSU 24, CONN 14 | -0.03 | 95.3% | -0.0% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 48 Started Drive at: NCSU 32 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.44 - 2.47 = -0.03 Score Difference (Before): 10 (12.47) Score Difference (End): 10 (12.44) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 24, CONN 14 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 20 yards Win Probability (Before): 95.3% Win Probability (After): 95.2% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q4 14:08 | |
(3rd & 3 at CONN 48) Brennan Armstrong run for 2 yds to the CONN 46 - NCSU 24, CONN 14 | -0.84 | 95.2% | -0.4% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 46 Started Drive at: NCSU 32 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.60 - 2.44 = -0.84 Score Difference (Before): 10 (12.44) Score Difference (End): 10 (11.60) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 24, CONN 14 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 22 yards Win Probability (Before): 95.2% Win Probability (After): 94.8% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q4 11:28 | |
(4th & 1 at CONN 46) Delbert Mimms III run for no gain to the CONN 46 - NCSU 24, CONN 14 | -3.61 | 94.2% | -2.5% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 54 Started Drive at: NCSU 32 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.88 - 1.73 = -3.61 Score Difference (Before): 10 (11.73) Score Difference (End): -10 (-8.12) Change of Possession: 1 Score: NCSU 24, CONN 14 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 22 yards Win Probability (Before): 94.2% Win Probability (After): 91.8% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
|||||
| Q4 11:28 | |
(1st & 10 at CONN 46) Joseph Fagnano pass complete to Justin Joly for 7 yds to the NCSU 47 - NCSU 24, CONN 14 | 0.52 | 8.9% | 0.5% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 47 Started Drive at: CONN 46 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.57 - 2.05 = 0.52 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-7.95) Score Difference (End): -10 (-7.43) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 24, CONN 14 Drive Summary: 1 play, 7 yards Win Probability (Before): 8.9% Win Probability (After): 9.4% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
|||||
| Q4 11:28 | |
(2nd & 3 at NCSU 47) Victor Rosa run for no gain to the NCSU 47 - NCSU 24, CONN 14 | -0.85 | 9.4% | -1.7% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 47 Started Drive at: CONN 46 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.72 - 2.57 = -0.85 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-7.43) Score Difference (End): -10 (-8.28) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 24, CONN 14 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 7 yards Win Probability (Before): 9.4% Win Probability (After): 7.7% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
|||||
| Q4 11:28 | |
(3rd & 3 at NCSU 47) Joseph Fagnano pass complete to Justin Joly for 6 yds to the NCSU 41 for a 1ST down - NCSU 24, CONN 14 | 1.20 | 7.7% | 2.2% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 41 Started Drive at: CONN 46 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.92 - 1.72 = 1.20 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-8.28) Score Difference (End): -10 (-7.08) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 24, CONN 14 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 13 yards Win Probability (Before): 7.7% Win Probability (After): 9.9% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
|||||
| Q4 11:28 | |
(1st & 10 at NCSU 41) Joseph Fagnano sacked by Red Hibbler for a loss of 7 yards to the NCSU 48 - NCSU 24, CONN 14 | -1.49 | 9.9% | -2.3% |
|
Play Type: Sack Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 48 Started Drive at: CONN 46 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.43 - 2.92 = -1.49 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-7.08) Score Difference (End): -10 (-8.57) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 24, CONN 14 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 6 yards Win Probability (Before): 9.9% Win Probability (After): 7.6% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
|||||
| Q4 11:28 | |
(2nd & 17 at NCSU 48) Joseph Fagnano run for 2 yds to the NCSU 46 - NCSU 24, CONN 14 | -0.85 | 7.6% | -0.5% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 46 Started Drive at: CONN 46 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.58 - 1.43 = -0.85 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-8.57) Score Difference (End): -10 (-9.42) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 24, CONN 14 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 8 yards Win Probability (Before): 7.6% Win Probability (After): 7.2% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
|||||
| Q4 11:28 | |
(3rd & 15 at NCSU 46) Joseph Fagnano pass incomplete - NCSU 24, CONN 14 | -1.21 | 7.2% | -1.1% |
|
Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 46 Started Drive at: CONN 46 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.63 - 0.58 = -1.21 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.42) Score Difference (End): -10 (-10.63) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 24, CONN 14 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 8 yards Win Probability (Before): 7.2% Win Probability (After): 6.1% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
|||||
| Q4 7:53 | |
(4th & 15 at NCSU 46) George Caratan punt for 46 yds for a touchback - NCSU 24, CONN 14 | -1.14 | 3.1% | 3.0% |
|
Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 80 Started Drive at: CONN 46 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.72 - -0.58 = -1.14 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-10.58) Score Difference (End): 10 (11.72) Change of Possession: 1 Score: NCSU 24, CONN 14 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 8 yards Win Probability (Before): 3.1% Win Probability (After): 6.1% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
|||||
| Q4 7:53 | |
(1st & 10 at NCSU 20) Brennan Armstrong run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSU 19 - NCSU 24, CONN 14 | -0.86 | 96.4% | -0.4% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 81 Started Drive at: NCSU 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.40 - 1.26 = -0.86 Score Difference (Before): 10 (11.26) Score Difference (End): 10 (10.40) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 24, CONN 14 Drive Summary: 1 play, -1 yards Win Probability (Before): 96.4% Win Probability (After): 96.0% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q4 7:53 | |
(2nd & 11 at NCSU 19) Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 12 yds to the NCSU 31 for a 1ST down - NCSU 24, CONN 14 | 1.41 | 96.0% | 0.8% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 81 -> 69 Started Drive at: NCSU 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.80 - 0.40 = 1.41 Score Difference (Before): 10 (10.40) Score Difference (End): 10 (11.80) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 24, CONN 14 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 11 yards Win Probability (Before): 96.0% Win Probability (After): 96.8% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q4 7:53 | |
(1st & 10 at NCSU 31) Brennan Armstrong run for 5 yds to the NCSU 36 - NCSU 24, CONN 14 | 0.03 | 96.8% | 0.2% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 64 Started Drive at: NCSU 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.83 - 1.80 = 0.03 Score Difference (Before): 10 (11.80) Score Difference (End): 10 (11.83) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 24, CONN 14 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 16 yards Win Probability (Before): 96.8% Win Probability (After): 97.0% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q4 5:32 | |
(3rd & 4 at NCSU 37) Timeout UConn, clock 05:32 - NCSU 24, CONN 14 | 0.00 | 98.0% | 0.0% |
|
Play Type: Timeout Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 63 Started Drive at: NCSU 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.83 - 1.83 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): 10 (11.83) Score Difference (End): 10 (11.83) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 24, CONN 14 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 16 yards Win Probability (Before): 98.0% Win Probability (After): 98.0% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
|||||
| Q4 5:32 | |
(2nd & 5 at NCSU 36) Jordan Houston run for 1 yd to the NCSU 37 - NCSU 24, CONN 14 | -0.59 | 98.5% | -0.1% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 63 Started Drive at: NCSU 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.05 - 1.64 = -0.59 Score Difference (Before): 10 (11.64) Score Difference (End): 10 (11.05) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 24, CONN 14 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 17 yards Win Probability (Before): 98.5% Win Probability (After): 98.3% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
|||||
| Q4 5:32 | |
(3rd & 4 at NCSU 37) Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Bradley Rozner for 14 yds to the CONN 49 for a 1ST down - NCSU 24, CONN 14 | 1.67 | 98.3% | 0.4% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 49 Started Drive at: NCSU 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.72 - 1.05 = 1.67 Score Difference (Before): 10 (11.05) Score Difference (End): 10 (12.72) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 24, CONN 14 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 31 yards Win Probability (Before): 98.3% Win Probability (After): 98.7% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
|||||
| Q4 5:32 | |
(1st & 10 at CONN 49) Jordan Houston run for 5 yds to the CONN 44 - NCSU 24, CONN 14 | 0.03 | 98.7% | -0.1% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 44 Started Drive at: NCSU 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.75 - 2.72 = 0.03 Score Difference (Before): 10 (12.72) Score Difference (End): 10 (12.75) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 24, CONN 14 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 36 yards Win Probability (Before): 98.7% Win Probability (After): 98.7% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
|||||
| Q4 5:32 | |
(2nd & 5 at CONN 44) Jordan Houston run for a loss of 3 yards to the CONN 47 - NCSU 24, CONN 14 | -1.22 | 98.7% | -0.3% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 47 Started Drive at: NCSU 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.53 - 2.75 = -1.22 Score Difference (Before): 10 (12.75) Score Difference (End): 10 (11.53) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 24, CONN 14 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 33 yards Win Probability (Before): 98.7% Win Probability (After): 98.4% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
|||||
| Q4 5:32 | |
(3rd & 8 at CONN 47) Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete - NCSU 24, CONN 14 | -1.62 | 98.4% | -0.3% |
|
Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 47 Started Drive at: NCSU 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.09 - 1.53 = -1.62 Score Difference (Before): 10 (11.53) Score Difference (End): 10 (9.91) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 24, CONN 14 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 33 yards Win Probability (Before): 98.4% Win Probability (After): 98.0% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
|||||
| Q4 3:14 | |
(4th & 8 at CONN 47) Caden Noonkester punt for 47 yds for a touchback - NCSU 24, CONN 14 | -0.47 | 98.8% | -1.7% |
|
Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 80 Started Drive at: NCSU 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.39 - 0.08 = -0.47 Score Difference (Before): 10 (10.08) Score Difference (End): -10 (-9.61) Change of Possession: 1 Score: NCSU 24, CONN 14 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 33 yards Win Probability (Before): 98.8% Win Probability (After): 97.1% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
|||||
| Q4 3:14 | |
(1st & 10 at CONN 20) Joseph Fagnano pass complete to Victor Rosa for 3 yds to the CONN 23 - NCSU 24, CONN 14 | -0.42 | 1.9% | -0.2% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 77 Started Drive at: CONN 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.35 - 0.77 = -0.42 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.23) Score Difference (End): -10 (-9.65) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 24, CONN 14 Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards Win Probability (Before): 1.9% Win Probability (After): 1.8% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
|||||
| Q4 3:14 | |
(2nd & 7 at CONN 23) Joseph Fagnano pass complete to Victor Rosa for 5 yds to the CONN 28 - NCSU 24, CONN 14 | -0.05 | 1.8% | 0.0% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 72 Started Drive at: CONN 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.31 - 0.35 = -0.05 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.65) Score Difference (End): -10 (-9.69) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 24, CONN 14 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 8 yards Win Probability (Before): 1.8% Win Probability (After): 1.8% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
|||||
| Q4 3:14 | |
(3rd & 2 at CONN 28) Joseph Fagnano pass incomplete - NCSU 24, CONN 14 | -1.28 | 1.8% | -0.5% |
|
Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 72 Started Drive at: CONN 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.97 - 0.31 = -1.28 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.69) Score Difference (End): -10 (-10.97) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 24, CONN 14 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 8 yards Win Probability (Before): 1.8% Win Probability (After): 1.3% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
|||||
| Q4 3:14 | |
(4th & 2 at CONN 28) Victor Rosa run for 3 yds to the CONN 31 for a 1ST down - NCSU 24, CONN 14 | 2.14 | 1.3% | 1.3% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 69 Started Drive at: CONN 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.17 - -0.97 = 2.14 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-10.97) Score Difference (End): -10 (-8.83) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 24, CONN 14 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 11 yards Win Probability (Before): 1.3% Win Probability (After): 2.5% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
|||||
| Q4 3:14 | |
(1st & 10 at CONN 31) Joseph Fagnano pass complete to Justin Joly for 25 yds to the NCSU 44 for a 1ST down - NCSU 24, CONN 14 | 1.28 | 2.5% | 0.4% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 44 Started Drive at: CONN 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.45 - 1.17 = 1.28 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-8.83) Score Difference (End): -10 (-7.55) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 24, CONN 14 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 36 yards Win Probability (Before): 2.5% Win Probability (After): 3.0% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
|||||
| Q4 3:14 | |
(1st & 10 at NCSU 44) Joseph Fagnano pass complete to Devontae Houston for 3 yds to the NCSU 41 - NCSU 24, CONN 14 | -0.22 | 3.0% | -0.1% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 41 Started Drive at: CONN 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.23 - 2.45 = -0.22 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-7.55) Score Difference (End): -10 (-7.77) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 24, CONN 14 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 39 yards Win Probability (Before): 3.0% Win Probability (After): 2.9% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
|||||
| Q4 3:14 | |
(2nd & 7 at NCSU 41) Joseph Fagnano pass incomplete - NCSU 24, CONN 14 | -0.60 | 2.9% | -0.2% |
|
Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 41 Started Drive at: CONN 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.62 - 2.23 = -0.60 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-7.77) Score Difference (End): -10 (-8.38) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 24, CONN 14 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 39 yards Win Probability (Before): 2.9% Win Probability (After): 2.7% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
|||||
| Q4 3:14 | |
(3rd & 7 at NCSU 41) Joseph Fagnano pass complete to Brett Buckman for 12 yds to the NCSU 29 for a 1ST down - NCSU 24, CONN 14 | 1.74 | 2.7% | 1.2% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 29 Started Drive at: CONN 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.37 - 1.62 = 1.74 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-8.38) Score Difference (End): -10 (-6.63) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 24, CONN 14 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 51 yards Win Probability (Before): 2.7% Win Probability (After): 3.9% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
|||||
| Q4 1:01 | |
(1st & 20 at NCSU 39) Timeout NC State, clock 01:01 - NCSU 24, CONN 14 | 0.00 | 1.3% | 0.0% |
|
Play Type: Timeout Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 39 Started Drive at: CONN 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.37 - 3.37 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-6.63) Score Difference (End): -10 (-6.63) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 24, CONN 14 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 51 yards Win Probability (Before): 1.3% Win Probability (After): 1.3% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
|||||
| Q4 1:01 | |
(1st & 10 at NCSU 29) FAGNANO, Joe pass deep to the right incomplete intended for HANSEN, Louis thrown to the NCS0. PENALTY UCN Holding on HAYNES, Christian enforced 10 yards from the NCS29 to the NCS39 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down). - NCSU 24, CONN 14 | -1.26 | 1.6% | -0.6% |
|
Play Type: Penalty Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 39 Started Drive at: CONN 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.73 - 2.99 = -1.26 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-7.01) Score Difference (End): -10 (-8.27) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 24, CONN 14 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 51 yards Win Probability (Before): 1.6% Win Probability (After): 0.9% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
|||||
| Q4 0:54 | |
(1st & 20 at NCSU 39) Joseph Fagnano pass intercepted - NCSU 24, CONN 14 | -2.69 | 1.0% | -0.4% |
|
Play Type: Interception Return Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 70 Started Drive at: CONN 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.96 - 1.73 = -2.69 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-8.27) Score Difference (End): 10 (10.96) Change of Possession: 1 Score: NCSU 24, CONN 14 Drive Summary: 9 plays, 51 yards Win Probability (Before): 1.0% Win Probability (After): 0.6% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
|||||
| Q4 0:54 | |
(1st & 10 at NCSU 30) Jordan Houston run for 4 yds to the NCSU 34 - NCSU 24, CONN 14 | -0.01 | 99.4% | 0.0% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 66 Started Drive at: NCSU 30 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.79 - 0.79 = -0.01 Score Difference (Before): 10 (10.79) Score Difference (End): 10 (10.79) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 24, CONN 14 Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards Win Probability (Before): 99.4% Win Probability (After): 99.4% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
|||||
| Q4 0:00 | |
(2nd & 6 at NCSU 34) [SG] Kneel down by ARMSTRONG, Brennan at NCS32 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00. - NCSU 24, CONN 14 | 0.44 | 98.5% | 1.5% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 68 Started Drive at: NCSU 30 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.51 - 0.07 = 0.44 Score Difference (Before): 10 (10.07) Score Difference (End): 10 (10.51) Change of Possession: 0 Score: NCSU 24, CONN 14 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 4 yards Win Probability (Before): 98.5% Win Probability (After): 100.0% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
|||||